In the latest episode of Charts and Checks, hosts Alvaro and Dan dive deep into the current market crosscurrents. From personal anecdotes about leasing a Tesla to hard-hitting technical analysis of AI darlings like Micron and cybersecurity giants like CrowdStrike, this report covers everything you need to know heading into the final weeks of the year.
🚗 Tesla: Tech Innovator or Overvalued Car Company?
The show kicks off with a spirited debate on Tesla ($TSLA). While Dan shares his positive consumer experience leasing a new Model 3 [00:40], Alvaro remains skeptical of the stock’s massive valuation—trading at 237 times forward earnings [06:55].
- The Bull Case: Tesla’s superior subscription model (FSD) and energy storage business [05:57].
- The Bear Case: It’s still fundamentally a car manufacturer with margins that have compressed to around 14% [10:32].
- Technical View: Despite valuation concerns, the chart is one of the strongest in the Magnificent Seven, trading near all-time highs [17:20].
📈 Micron ($MU): The AI Demand is Real
Micron recently “killed it” with an earnings report that blew past expectations, driven by insane demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) used in AI chips [20:28].
- Super Cycle or Cyclical Peak? Dan warns against the “super cycle” narrative, which often signals a temporary top in sentiment [24:31].
- Valuation: Surprisingly, Micron remains relatively cheap, trading at just 7 times forward earnings [26:05].
- Key Levels: Watch for a potential retest of the 50-day moving average at $237 for a “buy the dip” opportunity [37:09].
🚕 Uber ($UBER) and the “January Effect”
Uber has faced recent selling pressure due to fears surrounding Waymo’s rapid expansion [41:01].
- Overreaction? The hosts argue the sell-off is likely an overreaction. Uber’s fundamentals remain strong with revenue growth above 20% and record net income [46:48].
- Tax-Loss Harvesting: Current weakness might be due to institutional year-end selling, making Uber a prime candidate for the “January Effect” (where beaten-down high-quality stocks bounce in the new year) [42:50].
🛡️ Cybersecurity: Palo Alto ($PANW) vs. CrowdStrike ($CRWD)
Cybersecurity is a non-discretionary expense, yet both stocks have been caught in a broader software sector “chopfest” [01:00:51].
- CrowdStrike: Boasts incredible pricing power and revenue growth, but the chart is currently “ugly,” trading below key moving averages [54:03].
- Palo Alto: Alvaro shares his frustration with PANW’s sideways price action despite its solid long-term prospects [49:03].
- The Strategy: Protect capital first. If these stocks continue to slide into year-end, they become high-conviction buys for a 2026 recovery [01:06:20].
Final Thought: Whether you are enjoying the “Tesla lifestyle” or hunting for value in cybersecurity, the message is clear: watch the technical levels and stay patient for the January turnaround.
Watch the full video here: https://youtu.be/E2nR-RQguYI
Disclaimer: This content is for informational/educational purposes only and represents our opinions. We are NOT financial advisors. Trading involves risk, and you assume all responsibility for your own investment decisions. Consult a qualified financial professional.