Two of the most-watched names in AI hardware are stepping into the earnings confessional this week — ARM Holdings (ARM) reporting Wednesday after the bell, and CoreWeave (CRWV) following Thursday. Both carry massive expectations, stretched valuations, and estimated moves that could shake portfolios either way. Here’s a breakdown of what to watch.
ARM Holdings: 120% Rally Meets a $24 Estimated Move
ARM has been one of the market’s strongest performers since its last earnings report in early February, rising approximately 120% into this print. That momentum carries a double edge — strong price action signals confidence, but it also raises the bar considerably.
Earnings Whispers puts the estimated move at around $24, with 84% of subscribers expecting ARM to beat expectations. On the surface, that’s bullish sentiment. But when a stock has already run 120%, a beat can still trigger “sell the news” behavior — and ARM’s chart structure reflects this tension.
On the 4-hour chart, the stock is holding above its 5-day moving average (approximately $207), which is the near-term line in the sand for buyers. Lose that level into the report, and sellers could accelerate. The key VWAP anchored from ARM’s April 24 all-time high of $237 sits at approximately $214 — meaning the average buyer from that high is essentially flat. Every time ARM has tried to reclaim $214, it has failed.
From a volume-weighted standpoint, buyers who entered from the February earnings at $104 carry a cost basis near $132 — still deeply in the money. That creates a cushion. If ARM sells off $24 on a “good but not great” report, it likely won’t reach those February buyers, which could make any dip a buying opportunity rather than a breakdown.
The valuation concern is real. ARM trades at 105x forward earnings and a price-to-sales ratio of 47. Revenue growth is running around 20% year-over-year — solid, but not the explosive acceleration the market is pricing in. What analysts are pricing in is a significant acceleration curve through 2031, when forward revenue growth projections reach 61%.
Bottom line on ARM: If it retests the $183–$187 range after a disappointing reaction, that zone could attract dip buyers. A beat and raise that holds $207 opens the door higher.
CoreWeave: 100% Revenue Growth, But Cash Is Burning Fast
CoreWeave is a fundamentally different animal. The company leases Nvidia GPU infrastructure for AI data center workloads — and its revenue growth is staggering. Analysts expect $1.96 billion in revenue this quarter versus $981 million a year ago, representing roughly 100% year-over-year growth. For a company that hasn’t reported a single quarter of profitability, that growth rate is the entire thesis.
The estimated move into Thursday’s report is $1, or approximately 13%. The 4-hour chart is technically strong — price above both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages, both trending higher. But the market structure indicator tells a different story: demand is fading and supply is rising. When technicals say “go” and market structure says “wait” — earnings will be the catalyst that resolves the contradiction.
The financial picture requires context. CoreWeave lost $452 million last quarter on a 30% net loss margin. The company carries $3.9 billion in cash against $3.9 billion in long-term debt, plus a free cash flow deficit of -$2.5 billion and capital expenditures of $4.09 billion. Dilution is not a possibility — it’s an inevitability.
The price-to-sales ratio sits around 13–14x. For a company growing revenue 100% annually, that’s not the outrageous premium you might expect. Analysts don’t expect CoreWeave to turn profitable until 2029. At today’s price of approximately $18 and a 2029 EPS estimate of $1.48, that’s an 86x forward multiple on three-year-out earnings.
Bottom line on CoreWeave: If the revenue number clears $1.96B and guidance is strong, the path of least resistance is higher. But a miss in an overheated, momentum-driven stock with a -$2.5B free cash flow can move fast in both directions.
Key Takeaways for Traders
- ARM’s $207 level (5-day MA) is the near-term line to watch. Hold it into the report = bullish setup. Lose it = potential flush toward $183.
- CoreWeave’s market structure (declining demand, rising supply) is a yellow flag that disagrees with the chart — earnings will be the referee.
- Both stocks carry elevated estimated moves. Options premiums are priced accordingly — directional plays need the stock to move more than the implied move to be profitable.
- Neither of these names is appropriate for earnings speculation without a clear plan for both the upside and the downside.
Master the setup. Know your levels. Manage the risk — that’s the only edge that survives earnings season.
Video Credit
Analysis originally presented by Bilingual Stock Market. Watch the full session below.