Stock Chartistry | Pre-Market Report
Thursday, May 14, 2026 | 5:00 AM Eastern Standard Time
CSCO Doubles Its AI Orders, Jensen’s in Beijing, and Inflation Won’t Quit
Bulls are pressing at all-time highs this morning and they have a good reason to. Cisco just posted one of the most important earnings beats of the AI cycle — not because of the revenue number, but because AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers hit $5.3B year-to-date and the company is now guiding the full year to $9B. Double what they projected. Networking +50%, data-center switching +40%. These aren’t forward projections from management — they’re purchase orders from the companies building the AI backbone. Amazon, Google, Microsoft — they’re buying more network hardware, not less.
Meanwhile, Jensen Huang was added last-minute to the CEO delegation joining Trump in Beijing tonight. The meeting with Xi starts at 10:15 PM ET. A chip deal that lifts H100/H200 export restrictions would be a fundamental repricing event for NVDA — potentially +10% overnight. But notice that BABA is down 2.97% pre-market while futures are green. The market is pricing AI chip access, not a broad trade deal.
Here’s the problem sitting under all of this: PPI came in at +6% YoY yesterday — the highest since December 2022. Gasoline +15.6% in a single month (the Iran war doesn’t stop at a ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted). The 30-year Treasury cracked 5.03%. Rate hike probability jumped to 39%. And Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed chair tomorrow — confirmed 54-45 in the most partisan vote in Fed history — walking into an economy that’s too hot to cut into.
How themes interrelate: Iran war → crude $101 → gasoline +15.6% MoM → PPI +6% / CPI +3.8% → 30-yr at 5.03% → Warsh handcuffed → hike risk 39% → pressure on IWM / KRE / XHB → BUT CSCO AI orders double to $9B → Jensen Huang at Trump-Xi → chip deal potential → NVDA squeezes → bulls hold highs
Market tone: Tense / Explosive — Bulls have the ball on AI capex confirmation and China optimism. But this is a chase-risk environment with three binary events today. High gamma (highest since 2021) is suppressing vol — that same setup has historically preceded sharp tops.
Market Status — 5:00 AM ET
| Instrument | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| /ES (S&P 500) | 7,490 | +0.28% | Futures bid — all-time high territory |
| /NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,622 | +0.48% | Tech leads — AI infrastructure in play |
| /YM (Dow) | 49,974 | +0.37% | Broad participation |
| /RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,853 | +0.02% | Small caps lagging — rate-sensitive |
| VIX | 18.80 | -1.33% | Fear fading — high gamma environment |
| WTI Crude / CL | $101.73 | +0.70% | Still above $100 — Iran war structural bid |
| Gold / GC | $4,708 | +0.03% | Elevated but holding steady |
| Bitcoin / BTC | $79,995 | +0.31% | CLARITY Act vote today at 10:30 AM — binary |
| 10-Year Yield | 4.49% | ↑ Highest since July 2025 | 30-yr cracked 5.03% — hike risk rising |
| DXY (Dollar) | 98.52 | -0.10% | Modest dollar weakness |
Pre-Market Movers
▲ High Volume
| Symbol | Price | PM Chg | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | $120.58 | +18.37% | AI infrastructure blowout; hyperscaler orders doubled to $9B |
| MRVL | $187.00 | +5.09% | AI networking sympathy; CSCO halo |
| ONDS | $9.28 | +4.74% | BTO earnings today; 50M volume |
| NOK | $15.35 | +4.35% | AI infrastructure sympathy play |
| NVDA | $231.95 | +2.71% | Jensen Huang at Trump-Xi; chip deal binary tonight |
| TSLA | $449.28 | +0.90% | Elon Musk in the CEO delegation in Beijing |
| BABA | $141.48 | -2.97% | China ADR selling despite summit — not pricing a broad deal |
| INTC | $117.48 | -2.34% | AI reshuffle underperformer |
| NIO | $6.39 | -2.29% | China EV weakness despite summit optimism |
| MU | $792.70 | -1.36% | Pulling back after recent strong run |
▲ Gap Up
| Symbol | Price | PM Chg | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | $120.58 | +18.37% | Q3 beat: $15.84B rev (+12% YoY), EPS $1.06, AI orders $9B, Q4 guided above |
| DGXX | $9.19 | +8.63% | 26.45M vol; catalyst unconfirmed — watch for gap-fade |
| MRVL | $187.00 | +5.09% | AI networking sympathy; CSCO halo effect |
| ONDS | $9.28 | +4.74% | BTO earnings today; elevated volume |
| NOK | $15.35 | +4.35% | AI infrastructure sympathy |
| NVDA | $231.95 | +2.71% | CEO at Trump-Xi; chip deal binary tonight |
▼ Gap Down
| Symbol | Price | PM Chg | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOCS | $18.61 | -20.44% | Doximity — earnings miss; SaaS without an AI angle has no safety net |
| EOSE | $7.94 | -4.11% | Eos Energy; continued weakness |
| XPEV | $16.03 | -3.90% | China EV pressure |
| SONY | $21.95 | -3.69% | Consumer electronics weakness |
| BABA | $141.48 | -2.97% | China ADR diverging from summit optimism |
| INTC | $117.48 | -2.34% | AI reshuffle laggard |
| NIO | $6.39 | -2.29% | China EV weakness |
Section 1 — Macro Backdrop: Know This Before You Trade Anything
HIGHCSCO Validates the AI Capex Cycle
Key Facts
Cisco’s AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers went from a $5B annual target to $9B — in one quarter update. Networking product orders up 50%. Data-center switching up 40%. These aren’t forward projections — they’re purchase orders from the companies building the AI backbone. Amazon, Google, Microsoft are buying more network hardware, not less.
What It Means for Traders
AI spending is broadening from chips into every layer of the infrastructure stack. ANET, MRVL, AVGO, COHR all have sympathy opens. Watch CSCO gap-and-go vs. gap-and-fade in the first 30 minutes. $115 hold = constructive. Fade to $110 on volume = gap-fill setup forming.
HIGHTrump-Xi Tonight: Jensen Huang Is Literally in the Room
Key Facts
At 10:15 PM ET tonight, Trump sits down with Xi Jinping. Jensen Huang was added to the CEO delegation at the last minute — semiconductor trade is on the table. BABA is down 2.97% while futures are green: the market is pricing AI chip access specifically, not a broad trade deal.
What It Means for Traders
Chip deal lifting H100/H200 export restrictions = NVDA +10% overnight. Vague communiqué = today’s optimism sold. Do not chase NVDA late in the day without accepting the overnight binary. Positions held overnight carry that risk directly.
HIGHPPI +6% and the 30-Year at 5.03%
Key Facts
PPI +1.4% MoM vs. 0.5% expected — biggest monthly gain since March 2022. YoY: +6.0%. Two engines: gasoline +15.6% MoM (Iran war/Strait of Hormuz) and trade services +2.7% (tariff pass-through accelerating). The 30-year Treasury cracked 5.03%. Rate cut probability through 2026: near zero. Rate HIKE probability: 39%.
What It Means for Traders
The pressure is visible in sectors that can’t hide behind AI: IWM -0.09%, KRE -1.28%, XHB -0.71%. Those are the cracks. Keep rate-sensitive names off the buy list until yield direction resolves.
MEDWarsh Takes the Fed Tomorrow + Three Binary Events Today
Key Facts
Warsh confirmed 54-45 — most partisan Fed vote in modern history. First FOMC June 16-17. Market pricing 97.7% NO CHANGE. Paul Tudor Jones: “No chance Warsh can get the Fed to cut.” | 8:30 AM: April Retail Sales (exp. +0.5% vs. +1.7% prior). | 10:30 AM: CLARITY Act Senate vote — Kennedy (R-LA) uncommitted; BTC $79,995 = binary. | 4:30 PM: AMAT earnings — NVMI beat this morning = positive preview.
What It Means for Traders
Three binary landmines before the Trump-Xi overnight. Wait for 8:30 data before sizing any new position. CLARITY pass = BTC/MSTR/COIN higher. AMAT beat = sets up Friday’s entire semi tape.
Section 2 — Earnings in Focus
After Close May 13 — Movers This Morning
| Ticker | Price | Move | Key Stats | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | $120.58 | +18.37% | Rev $15.84B (+12% YoY); EPS $1.06; AI orders $9B; Q4 guided above | Bullish for entire AI infra stack |
| STAA | $34.20 | +16.33% | Significant beat; ophthalmic device | Breadth of earnings strength beyond AI |
| DOCS | $18.61 | -20.44% | Major miss; healthcare digital SaaS | Non-AI SaaS still has trap doors — bounce = fade |
Tonight After Close — Watch List
| Ticker | Time | Est. EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 4:30 PM ET | $2.68 / $7.69B | AI chip demand, HBM memory, advanced packaging. NVMI beat this morning = positive preview. Sets all of Friday’s semiconductor tape. |
Bottom Line — How to Trade Today
Don’s Session Playbook
Bulls are at all-time highs and CSCO just handed them the “AI capex is real” validation they needed. But this is a market running on catalysts and borrowed time — PPI at +6%, oil above $100, a 30-year at 5.03%, and a new Fed chair who can’t cut even if he wants to. Three binary events today can flip the tape in either direction.
TIME-BASED PLAYBOOK
| Pre-mkt to 8:30 | Futures green; gap-up open likely. CSCO and sympathy names run. Do NOT chase — let it breathe. |
| 8:30 AM | Retail sales + claims land. Wait 30 seconds. Either direction creates a sharp futures move. |
| 8:30–10:30 AM | If futures hold after data, gap-and-go mode. QQQ $718 is the line. SMH and AI infra names lead. |
| 10:30 AM | CLARITY Act vote. BTC binary. MSTR, COIN, MARA react immediately. |
| 10:30–2:00 PM | High gamma chop. Dealers buy every dip. Tight range is structure, not signal. |
| 2:00–4:00 PM | Trump-Xi positioning. NVDA and AI/China names move. Size for the overnight binary. |
| 4:30 PM | AMAT earnings. Sets all of Friday’s semi trade. |
| 10:15 PM ET | Trump-Xi. Chip deal = NVDA gaps up tomorrow. Vague communiqué = profit-taking. Overnight binary. |
SCENARIO MAP
| BULL (55%) | Retail in-line → yields stable → CSCO gap holds → chip deal tonight → NVDA gaps up → new highs |
| NEUTRAL (30%) | Mixed data → QQQ fades gap → 7,450–7,500 /ES range → AMAT in-line → Friday flat |
| BEAR (15%) | Retail miss → stagflation read → yields spike → CLARITY fails → BTC -5% → NVDA gives back gains |
THE LANDMINES
8:30 AM — Retail Sales + Claims. Do not be positioned into the print. | 10:30 AM — CLARITY Act vote. Kennedy’s vote is the pin. | 4:30 PM — AMAT earnings. Sets Friday’s semi trade. | 10:15 PM ET — Trump-Xi. Biggest pending catalyst. Overnight binary.
Explore my custom Thinkorswim indicators and trading tools:
🔗 Website: stockchartistry.com
🛒 Indicator Store: stockchartistry.com/products
🐦 Follow me on X: @StockChartistry
Stock Chartistry collaborates with the Bi-Lingual Stock Market Channel community. Explore their Patreon or join their Discord here: patreon.com/bsmc_eng
⏰ Get It Before the Bell — Every Morning
Get the Pre-Market Report delivered to your inbox every morning before the open. We’re in beta now — subscribe free and lock in your first 30 days at no cost when we launch. After that, it’s just $5/month.
Subscribe Free →This report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Stock Chartistry is not a registered investment advisor.