Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | 5:00 AM Eastern Standard Time
The dominant story this morning isn’t yesterday’s hot CPI — it’s Jensen Huang on Air Force One with President Trump, bound for Beijing. NVDA hit a fresh all-time high of $225.49 overnight, and the entire semiconductor complex followed. INTC +4.22%, MU +5.29%, AMD +3.03%, QCOM +3.80%, RKLB +5.79%. The gap-down list has exactly two names. That’s the tape telling you everything.
HOW THEMES INTERRELATE
Jensen joins Trump’s China trip → NVDA ATH → semi sweep → QQQ leads → risk-on rotation → oil pulls back → CPI fear takes a back seat → PPI at 8:30 AM is the only gate left
Market Status — 5:00 AM EST
| Instrument | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| /ES (S&P 500) | ~5,720 | +0.6% | Futures bid — risk-on tone |
| /NQ (Nasdaq 100) | ~19,860 | +1.0% | Tech leads — semi sweep in play |
| /RTY (Russell 2000) | ~2,025 | +0.4% | Broad participation |
| VIX | ~18.2 | -4.5% | Fear collapsing — risk-on |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 | -2.8% | Pulling back — geopolitical premium easing |
| Gold | ~$4,710 | +0.3% | Elevated but not spiking |
| Bitcoin | ~$78K | +2.1% | Risk-on crypto bid |
| 10Y Yield | ~4.38% | — | Still elevated — CPI overhang |
*Futures/ETF levels are pre-market estimates from TOS dashboard.
Pre-Market Movers
📈 High Volume
| Symbol | Price | Chg % | Wk % | Vol (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG | $3.61 | +1.40% | +1.7% | 197.0 |
| INTC | $125.70 | +4.22% | -3.5% | 172.5 |
| NVDA | $225.49 | +2.13% | +2.6% | 159.2 |
| QUBT | $12.27 | +4.16% | +22.7% | 141.1 |
| NOK | $13.74 | +4.33% | +2.7% | 104.2 |
| MU | $807.11 | +5.29% | +2.7% | 73.7 |
| TSLA | $437.80 | +1.00% | +1.2% | 60.6 |
| IONQ | $57.42 | +2.77% | +13.5% | 51.7 |
| NVTS | $21.06 | +9.40% | +5.8% | 47.3 |
| AMD | $461.88 | +3.03% | -1.5% | 39.1 |
| QCOM | $218.30 | +3.80% | -4.0% | 38.6 |
| RKLB | $124.37 | +5.79% | +11.5% | 34.2 |
🡅 Gap Up
| Symbol | Price | Chg % | Wk % | Vol (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLF | $76.00 | +41.47% | +15.3% | 15.3 |
| NVTS | $21.06 | +9.40% | +5.8% | 47.3 |
| RKLB | $124.37 | +5.79% | +11.5% | 34.2 |
| MU | $807.11 | +5.29% | +2.7% | 73.7 |
| SNDK | $1,528.00 | +5.23% | -7.7% | 17.1 |
| POET | $14.34 | +4.44% | +25.4% | 85.3 |
| NOK | $13.74 | +4.33% | +2.7% | 104.2 |
| INTC | $125.70 | +4.22% | -3.5% | 172.5 |
| QUBT | $12.27 | +4.16% | +22.7% | 141.1 |
| QCOM | $218.30 | +3.80% | -4.0% | 38.6 |
| JD | $32.58 | +3.46% | +4.5% | 19.8 |
| AMD | $461.88 | +3.03% | -1.5% | 39.1 |
🡇 Gap Down — Only 2 Names. Read the Tape.
| Symbol | Price | Chg % | Wk % | Vol (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | $9.90 | -10.24% | +6.4% | 9.2 |
| OSCR | $23.40 | -1.39% | +11.4% | 13.2 |
Two names on the gap-down list at 5 AM. That’s the tape speaking.
Section 1 — Macro Backdrop: Know This Before You Trade Anything
- NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump on his first trip to China in eight years, signaling that AI chip export restrictions may ease and new China AI infrastructure deals are on the table.
- NVDA opened at a fresh ATH of $225.49 — up 16% in the past month. Entire semi complex followed: INTC +4.22%, MU +5.29%, SNDK +5.23%, QCOM +3.80%, AMD +3.03%, RKLB +5.79%.
- This is not a routine bounce. This is coordinated sector re-rating on a single catalyst.
What it means: Semis are the bull case. Wait for the PPI reaction at 8:30 before chasing extended names — best entries come on the post-data reset, not at the gap open.
Tape: NVDA $225.49 ATH / INTC +4.22% / MU +5.29% / AMD +3.03% / SMH / QCOM +3.80%
- April Producer Price Index drops at 8:30 AM ET — first major inflation print after yesterday’s hot CPI (+3.8% YoY, core +2.8%). March PPI was already elevated at +4.0% YoY.
- HOT print: inflation double-confirmation, rate hike odds spike, yields push higher, semi rally trims.
- COOL print: CPI treated as outlier, relief rally fuel added, semis extend the breakout.
What it means: This is the 8:30 AM binary. The China/Jensen catalyst wins the session directionally, but PPI decides the entry window. Cool = chase. Hot = wait for the dip.
Tape: TLT / TNX (10Y yield) / QQQ / SPY / SMH
- Yesterday’s CPI (+3.8% YoY, +0.6% MoM; Core +2.8%) pushed rate hike odds to ~30% by year-end.
- Market sold off on the print — SPX -0.31%, NDX -0.70%. That macro backdrop hasn’t changed. Today’s China/AI catalyst is overriding it emotionally, but rates are still a structural headwind.
- Watch TLT and the 10Y yield. If yields climb despite the risk-on tape, the rally is running on sentiment.
What it means: Bullish overlay, but keep yields on your screen. A yield spike reversal is the bear case that doesn’t need a bad headline — just the bond market staying stubborn.
Tape: TLT / GLD / XLF / QQQ / IWM
- Two-day summit begins today — Trump’s first visit to China in eight years. October 2025 trade truce expected to be extended.
- Key focus shifted from tariffs to critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains — inputs that power military hardware and AI data centers.
- JD +3.46% and BABA +0.79% show a China ADR bid, but semis are capturing most of the flow.
What it means: Positive summit headline = China ADRs + semis accelerate. Any stumble = fast reversal in crowded names. Headlines move this instantly. Stay nimble.
Tape: JD +3.46% / BABA +0.79% / KWEB / FXI / NVDA / SMH
- WTI retreating from recent highs (~$106), now near $103. De-escalation sentiment from summit optimism removing geopolitical premium.
- Lower oil = one less CPI/PPI input running hot. Mild tailwind for transports and consumer names.
- Iran conflict still live. Any escalation headline reverses this overnight.
What it means: Background color today, not a primary trading theme. Energy may underperform if crude continues lower.
Tape: USO / XLE / XOP / DAL / UAL
Section 2 — Earnings Deep Dives
After the Close — May 12 (Yesterday)
These prints came in after yesterday’s close. Top movers are gapping up significantly this morning; bottom movers are carrying selling pressure into today’s tape.
Top Performers
| Symbol | Price | Chg % | Wk % | Vol (M) | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VELO | $17.36 | +23.47% | +4.5% | 2.7 | Q1 beat: EPS -$0.20 vs -$0.48 est. Rev $13.8M, gross margin 17.2%. Reaffirmed FY26 rev $60-70M. Targets EBITDA positive H2 2026. |
| AIP | $37.50 | +15.63% | +1.8% | 1.3 | Strong Q1 beat. AI infrastructure and data center exposure driving investor interest in the current risk-on, AI-led tape. |
| NXT | $141.54 | +12.90% | -0.4% | 5.7 | Record FY26 revenue $3.56B (+20% YoY). Record backlog over $5.25B. Strong forward visibility — beat and raise. |
| AKA | $12.90 | +9.97% | +3.1% | 0.01 | Small-cap beat. Very thin float — not a macro read-through. |
| OKLO | $74.94 | +1.78% | +1.5% | 15.6 | Q1 net loss -$33.1M (-$0.19/sh), slight financial miss. BUT: NRC approved Principal Design Criteria for Aurora powerhouse (Idaho) — the real catalyst. Pre-revenue nuclear; regulatory milestone is what 15.6M volume is buying. |
| QXO | $17.90 | +0.90% | -0.4% | 16.6 | Muted reaction on elevated volume. Brad Jacobs-led building products tech play. High vol + muted move = distribution or rotation watch. |
Bottom Performers
| Symbol | Price | Chg % | Wk % | Vol (M) | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QUIK | $17.80 | -6.56% | -4.2% | 1.1 | Earnings miss. QuickLogic semiconductor — small-cap, limited broader read-through. |
| REZI | $34.93 | -4.77% | -7.7% | 1.8 | Resideo Technologies. Weak guidance or miss. Consumer/housing exposure flags macro softness in rate-sensitive segments. |
| KRMN | $60.00 | -3.97% | +2.7% | 3.1 | Karman Space and Defense — miss or guidance cut. Monitors rotation away from speculative defense names. |
| ATRO | $76.93 | -1.70% | +4.2% | 0.9 | Astronics — aerospace electronics miss. Contained move; low volume. |
Today’s Earnings — BTO (This Morning) & ATC (Tonight)
WOLF (Wolfspeed) — Gap Up +41.47% | $76.00 | Vol: 15.3M
Wolfspeed gapping up 41% — largest mover on the board. Silicon carbide semiconductor with exposure to EV and industrial power applications. Move reflects earnings beat or major strategic announcement. Standalone catalyst — not tied to the China/Jensen narrative.
Session read: Don’t chase the open gap. Let it consolidate. If it holds by 10 AM it becomes a continuation story. Watch sympathy in SiC/EV names: ON, ST.
BABA (Alibaba) — BTO Earnings | $135.85 | +0.79% | Vol: 16.1M
Alibaba reporting Q4 FY2026 this morning. Estimates: $35.23B revenue (+8.12% YoY), EPS ~$1.22 (down ~29% YoY from disposed businesses). The +0.79% pre-market move is muted. The real catalyst is the summit. Positive trade/cloud/AI commentary combined with a favorable summit headline could ignite a significantly larger move.
Session read: BABA is a summit-plus-earnings binary today. Muted print + good summit = modest upside. Beat + summit positive = real move. Watch JD as the sympathy read.
TSEM (Tower Semiconductor) — BTO Earnings | $235.00 | +6.42% | Vol: 2.3M
Tower Semiconductor up 6.4% on a strong earnings beat. Key analog/mixed-signal foundry with exposure to AI power management and specialty chip demand. The foundry layer is seeing real demand from the same capex surge driving NVDA and the hyperscalers.
Session read: Confirms the AI capex thesis at the foundry level. Read-through for INTC foundry business, MU, and the broader semi supply chain.
CSCO (Cisco) — Reports AFTER CLOSE Tonight | Options pricing ~9.87% move
Cisco Q3 FY2026 reports after-close tonight. Guidance already issued: $15.4-15.6B revenue vs Street ~$15.2B; EPS $1.02-1.04 vs Street $0.95 — beat is expected. Full-year AI orders raised to >$5B, with ~$3B converting to hyperscaler revenue. The question is the forward guide and AI order trajectory commentary.
Session read: CSCO options pricing a ~10% move. Beat + strong AI forward guide = tech relief into tomorrow. Miss or weak AI order commentary = damages the capex thesis, weighs on SMH, XLK, ANET, AVGO in after-hours.
Section 3 — Upcoming Earnings Calendar
| Date | Ticker | When | Key Watch | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 5/13 | BABA | BTO | China cloud/AI growth + summit commentary | HIGH |
| Today 5/13 | CSCO | ATC | AI orders >$5B — forward guide is everything | HIGH |
| Today 5/13 | WOLF / TSEM / DT / NBIS | BTO | Semis, foundry, cloud — all AI capex reads | MED |
| Wed 5/20 | NVDA | ATC | Most important earnings of the year — AI demand outlook | CRITICAL |
Section 4 — Session Bias & Bottom Line
| Bias | Position | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LONG | QQQ / SMH / NVDA / INTC / MU | Jensen in Beijing = chip deal thesis. Semis at breakout. AI capex intact. |
| LONG | JD / China ADRs | Summit positive read + BABA earnings. Smaller size — binary on summit outcome. |
| SHORT | TLT / IWM | Higher-for-longer overhang in play. IWM lagging — rate-sensitive, not benefiting from AI theme. |
| AVOID | CSCO pre-earnings / Energy | CSCO is a binary tonight — do not hold through. Oil direction unclear. |
| LANDMINE | PPI 8:30 AM | Hot print = early strength fades. Best entries come AFTER the PPI reaction, not before. |
| LANDMINE | NVDA ATH + crowd long | Negative China chip export headline = sharp reversal in the largest market cap. Coiled spring. |
| LANDMINE | Iran escalation | Any flare-up flips the oil bid, inflation premium returns, de-escalation narrative reverses. |
Bottom Line — Session Playbook
When the largest company in the world hits all-time highs at 4 AM and there are two names on the gap-down list, the tape is speaking. Today is not a cautiously bullish day — it is an explosive risk-on setup built on a single catalyst that changes the structural narrative: Jensen Huang is sitting in Beijing with the President of the United States, and the market is pricing in what comes next for AI chips in China.
Time-Based Playbook:
- Pre-8:30 AM: Bullish but don’t chase. Semis are extended pre-open. Let the dust settle.
- 8:30 AM — PPI: Binary gate. COOL = chase the semi rip; entries in INTC / MU / AMD / NVDA pullbacks. HOT = expect 1-2% trim in QQQ, wait for the dip, then buy it.
- 9:30 AM — Open: Watch the first 15 minutes. If SMH holds the gap, bulls run the session. If SMH fades the open, take profits quickly and wait.
- Mid-session: Summit headlines live all day from Beijing. Any tariff/mineral/chip deal announcement moves the tape instantly.
- After 4 PM — CSCO: Session’s second binary. Most traders should be flat going into the print.
Scenario Map:
- Bull (60%): PPI cool → semis extend → QQQ breaks to new highs → summit positive chip/trade headline → CSCO guides up → full AI breakout day.
- Base (30%): PPI slightly hot → semis give back 1-2%, reset → buyers step in at support → summit neutral → CSCO beats → market closes green but off the highs.
- Bear (10%): PPI very hot + negative summit headline → NVDA reverses from ATH → semi selloff → QQQ tests yesterday’s CPI lows. Requires two simultaneous bad catalysts.
NVDA — Is It Ready to Retake the Lead?
NVDA has been consolidating while the broader Mag 7 rotated. Today is the first morning where a specific, company-level catalyst — Jensen in Beijing — is driving it to a new all-time high with conviction and heavy volume. The largest market cap in the world retaking leadership into a summit week is not a coincidence. If NVDA holds this ATH through the session, the structural shift is confirmed: AI leadership is back, and NVDA is back at the front.
SESSION BIAS: LONG SEMIS / AVOID CSCO PRE-PRINT / LANDMINE = PPI 8:30 AM
On the Horizon — Standalone Watch Items
NVDA Earnings — Wednesday, May 20, 2026 (After-Close)
The most important earnings print of the year. NVDA reports one week from today. Buying into ATH ahead of these earnings creates a crowded long with binary event risk. This is not today’s story — but any position built today carries next Wednesday’s print. A miss or disappointing AI demand commentary from the ATH level would be a significant event. Manage size accordingly.
BOJ Carry Trade Risk — Not Today’s Story, But the Risk That Arrives Suddenly
Bank of Japan rate hike probability remains elevated (~74% for June). When BOJ raises rates, yen carry trades unwind — leveraged capital deployed into high-beta US assets (semis, Mag 7, AI names) gets forced out. This has its own trigger and arrives suddenly. High-beta AI names — exactly the ones leading this morning — are the most exposed when the carry unwinds.
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